It depresses me that in the first week of its exalted existence that muchtoomuch.com has experienced a dearth of posts. In fact, with the exception of the original test post there have been no comments of any kind. So what does a budding scholar of International Relations theory do for a situation such as this? I pondered and applied a theory that is not my own.

It strikes me that there is a distinct â€ist move disadvantageâ€t posting to a new blog. In a blog, unlike chess or nuclear war the cost benefit analysis actually favors those who wait. In addition to having to go to the initial effort of creating an original and engaging thread of thought the first poster opens themselves up to scorn and ridicule.

This theory is based on the underling premises that once an idea is out in the public domain, it is both irrevocable and refutable. Unlike the dialogues of the ancient Greeks, a posting to a modern day forum is rarely framed as an open ended question. Conversely, a post to blog is an affirmative statement of opinion and position. Even if a contributor vacillates in their statement, the words and ideas which they disseminate are clearly recorded for others to dissect and expound upon. Effectively, a poster has exposed him or herself publicly in a forum of public discourse. In terms of game theory, this would not be analogous to a prisoner's dilemma where both sides have an asymmetry of information. By the very public nature of such a discussion, the person who moves first has in essence leaped before looking.

Social norms such as pride and prudence can only work against a prospective contributor. Compound these factors with the increased speed and accessibility of information flow provided by the internet medium and one is left with a potentially prohibitive barrier to entry into an online debate.

The only distinct advantage that I can see to posting first is that it does provide a unique opportunity to initiate a conversation on a topic or in a direction of ones own choosing. In my limited exposure to blogs, this is a persistent problem when a maverick poster attempts to win or dominate an argument before it begins by lashing out at all others in a â€pendid first strikeâ€tpe of post. Needless to say, that is not my intention here because I believe that such comments are of minimal value.

Please feel free to lambaste, laud, or elucidate (or any combination thereof) as appropriate. My main point is simply to provoke something from the brilliant minds collected here...even if this means exposing myself to a first move disadvantage.